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Small metal is being continually fried. Who is going to be the next one?

日期:2018-07-26 人气:159

After the outbreak of the A-share metal cobalt plate, the titanium dioxide plate broke out in the past two days. From the price increase of these two small metal markets, the price of cobalt has increased by nearly 125% in the past year, and the titanium dioxide has also increased by 90%. The price increase of the industry will gradually be transmitted to the profits of related companies, which has become the highlight of the market. What are the concerns of the small metal plate? What is the main logic of this price increase? Take a look at the analyst's point of view!
What are the small metals? You may hear that many non-ferrous metals are copper, zinc, lead and other large varieties of metals, which are relatively unfamiliar to small metals. The metals that the market pays more attention to are cobalt, tungsten, rhenium, lithium, rare earth, titanium, antimony, zirconium, magnesium, etc. The use of small metals is also quite special, mainly used in coatings, battery materials, military applications. Among them, small metals such as tungsten, rare earth and antimony rank among the four strategic resources of China.
The Anxin Nonferrous Group has made an in-depth analysis of the small metal industry recently. The rise of the small metal industry is also mainly summarized into four reasons: 1. Price: The price of small metals is sticky, and the inflation cycle tends to be thick and thin, and may be late, but absolutely Will not be absent, and the withdrawal is small. 2. Cost: The cost line rises, and the price of small metals falls, and it is easy to rise and fall. 3. Demand: The rise of manufacturing investment is closely related to the demand for small metals. Demand is actually driven, and the concept of new materials will gradually come out. 4. Supply: The supply side clears clearly, the oligopoly and policy attributes are strong, and it is easy for traders to reluctantly sell goods and financial capital to help.
According to Baichuan Information, the trading price of cobalt has increased by as much as 62% in the past three months. Looking at the overseas market, LME cobalt spot has continued to rise for one year, with a cumulative increase of about 115%. Since the beginning of last year, the price of titanium dioxide has also soared by 90%.
Cobalt prices may continue to heat up, data from commodity consultancy CRU shows that the global supply and demand gap for cobalt may be around 900 tons this year. Considering the large purchases in the electric vehicle industry, the demand for cobalt will increase by 20% every year for the next five years. In terms of titanium dioxide, according to the Securities Daily, the market generally expects that the titanium dioxide market will maintain the seller-led situation in 2017, and the price of titanium dioxide is expected to exceed 20,000 yuan/ton.
Small metal rotation, which subdivisions have opportunities in the later stage? From the past performance of the A-share non-ferrous plate, the small-metal plate tends to have strong compensatory demand after the industrial metal has risen sharply and maintained a high-level shock. This kind of compensatory increase is often triggered by policy factors and is basically oriented to good support. The big factory raises the price, the industry chain replenishes the warehouse, and the reluctance to sell the goods, which has a strong volatility. However, Shen Wanhongyuan (000166, BUY) (00218) also pointed out that the small metal cycle is following the big metal. If the big metal unexpectedly falls, the small metal market will also be fully terminated.
Anxin non-ferrous metal Qiding said that the current order of attention for small metal wheeling is: cobalt, tungsten, niobium, lithium, rare earth, titanium, niobium, zirconium, magnesium. The agency said that in the inflation cycle, small metals will make up, but it is only a matter of rising, rising, and slowing. Now buying small metals will at least not lose money, because small metals are easy to rise during the inflation cycle. The Lord who is hard to fall.
Guo Jin Securities (600109, BUY) non-ferrous metal analyst Liao Wei said that for the first half of the year, mainly optimistic about tungsten and antimony, the second half of the year is more optimistic about lithium hydroxide.锑 Mainly because of environmental protection, the output has been greatly reduced. At present, the price of bismuth concentrate has reached 60%. Lithium hydroxide is mainly optimistic about the demand for lithium hydroxide in high-end ternary lithium batteries.
From the perspective of a private equity person, they are more optimistic about the rare earth industry. They believe that the recent trade war is escalating, and China is a big country for rare earth exports. It can use rare earths as a weapon for sanctions trade wars, and the export cost of rare earths may increase.

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